Battered by Geopolitical Winds, Bulgaria Struggles to Restart Much Needed Reforms

In 2021, Bulgaria went through a turbulent political year, followed by an even more first half of 2022. the domestic arena, divisions between established parties serving rent seeking elites (Dimitrova, 2018) and newer movements challenging state capture model in Bulgarian politics became clearly visible course year that contained three parliamentary elections presidential one. arena EU policy making, various European Union (EU) actors, including Commissioner for Neighbourhood Enlargement Varhelyi, German Chancellor Scholtz, French President Macron diplomats working as part Presidency Council Ministers have been on compromise proposal opening way lifting Bulgaria's veto start accession negotiations with North Macedonia. Domestically, however, some actors attempted – partly succeeded to politicize relations neighbouring Macedonia mobilize public opinion against compromise. The complexity fronts challenged pro-reform leaders trying re-start reforms restore eroded institutions governance increased further Russian invasion Ukraine. While was not only country battered harsh geopolitical winds, Ukraine exposed extensive penetration influence laid bare Russia's destabilizing societal debates democratic processes. This contribution provides overview these developments argues reform created rise reformist parties, such Democratic ‘We Continue Change’ has been, contrast past, endangered, rather than reinforced interactions arena. There are two trends be observed. On one hand, significant cleavage become status quo parties. Specifically, 2021 force reckoned with, while at same time under banner change anti-corruption rhetoric populist also arose ultimately protect quo. most important thus separating those committed govern based universalist principles rule law engaged ‘competitive particularism’ (Mungiu-Pippidi, 2015, p.31–2). 1 other politicization choices made level context enlargement after delineated nationalist pro-Russian politicians hand Euro-Atlantic ones, other. Crucially, cleavages do overlap, they usually done history, pro-European informal aim preserve corrupt practices institutions. article therefore, presented dilemma which is complex ever. For EU, choice supporting new government far-reaching kind calling since enhancing limiting corruption applying pressure facilitate Macedonia, reasons fairness, coherence credibility, stark presidency brokered it possible unblock deadlock (Bechev, 2022b), mismatch foreign will likely continue cause problems. proceed follows. After sketching path Union, section discusses stagnation backsliding characterized end decade GERB (Grazhdani za Evropejsko Razvitie na Bulgaria: Citizens Development Bulgaria) rule. outlines led mass protests targeting problems 2020–21. Subsequently, dynamics emerging protest when took place times, explained emphasis sources electoral volatility. then turns six months follow formation challenges brought its quick demise, arrive analysis create tensions dangers democracy. Bulgaria, along Romania, labelled laggard (Dimitrov Plachkova, 2021; Dimitrova, 2020). early 2000s, during final stages Eastern enlargement, concerns about law, especially accountability certain parts judiciary prosecution, role organized crime postpone (and Romania's) 2007. Accession Treaty included additional suspension clauses, addition safeguards introduced 2004 group (Noutcheva Bechev, 2008). Post-accession, monitoring mechanism both so-called Cooperation Verification Mechanism (CVM) involved regular reports from Commission focusing areas persistent concern law. mechanism, resulted no great success improving Plachkova Dimitrov et al., 2014, Gateva, 2013). main reason institutional adjustments remained formal piecemeal, underlying, structured patron-client lines 2018; Mungiu-Pippidi, 2015) undermined ability regulators - fulfil their functions. Yet last decade, escalating conflict over democracy Hungary Poland EU's inability address member states (Kelemen, 2020), unreformed look good, or least bad, EU. Successive governments Boyko Borissov his party did engage very moves undermine institutions, replace judges ban media outlets. At level, had reputation following Germany's lead aligning People's Party (EPP) Parliament. These alliances use emphatically served mask shortcomings long-standing Prime Minister, Borissov, careful anti-European rhetoric, Viktor Orban Hungary. crucial votes, 2015 vote ill-fated plan redistribution asylum seekers subsequent decision taken qualified majority, 2 voted join Visegrad dissent. 2018 reasonably successful managed make progress key dossiers, Western Balkans (Veleva-Eftimova Haralampiev, 2022). Despite compliance seemingly smooth record until recently could described disguised stability. Under almost uninterrupted dominance leader 2009 (except brief Socialist coalition 2013–14), barely discernible transformation unfolded successive cabinets, leading pronounced trend 2018–19. Backsliding set several features: overt fusion business by, but limited DPS (Dvizhenie Prava I Svobodi Movement Rights Freedoms) GERB, increasing personalized around figure politicized prosecution. Ultimately, serious erosion occurred third cabinets. Initially, incorporated expert heavyweights respected checks balances, combined executive aggrandisement discourses informal, powerful influences dubious figures sanctioned US, parliament tycoon Peevski. outline harder authoritarian 2019 strengthening Office Prosecutor Chief creation specialized prosecution courts. Chief, Ivan Geshev, appointed October 2019, despite candidacy attracting (Gotev, 2019). Indeed, Geshev Prosecutor's office soon politically motivated unfounded prosecutions inconvenient case former ministers Simeon Dyankov Traicho Traikov newspaper owner Ivo Prokopiev 2020. dismissed judge stressing normal advisory activities were criminal Prokopiev, example, accused expressing capacity national council body, acted professional competent manner (Mitov, 2020a, 2020b). trends, enabled GERB's long stage, started summer 2020 continued April 2021. initial impulse provided right centre ‘Da, Bulgaria’ Hristo Ivanov action brilliantly illustrated problem capture. land boat beach near Black Sea port Burgas where Ahmed Dogan, chairman (representing Turkish minority) built private residence coast. constitutional provision beaches property, companion stopped Dogan's bodyguards. Transmitted live via social media, Ivanov's failed attempt plant flag guarded compound attracted attention caused indignation. ‘Da figures, notably Rumen Radev, condemned actions security guards, clear employed institution, National Service Protection (of politicians), fact Dogan active politician. When, few days later, members unit raided apparent retaliation criticism, there widespread anger popular mobilization. Broad diverse groups citizens mobilized protest, demanding resignation Chief. Against this background mobilization, remarkable politics, bringing polls less elections, four if we count election scheduled November entered period which, ‘civic activism produced bearers’ (Krasteva Todorov, 2020, p. 184) other, high levels fragmentation lack experience broad coalitions obstacles stability desired protesters. April, July rollercoaster winners formations bursting programmes change. continuing favour electorate sometimes showed signs being angrier informed, paraphrase Krasteva Todorov's apt formulation 184). All returned fragmented parliaments signalling dissatisfaction long-established Socialists. produce winner strong majority. Most all, decline voter turnout 50.6 per cent 40 signalled fatigue would ignore peril. break GERB-led 31.9 going different associated protests. movement formed talk show host Slavi Trifonov, called ‘Ima takuv narod’ ITN (‘There people’) remarkable. newcomer without programme, received 17.7 play followed, campaigning alternative existing It shooting star horizon fit into post 1989 tradition achieving out nothing stage. Trifonov enjoyed privileged starting position due many years television, style put him firmly line charismatic engaging populism identitarianism (Gurov Zankina, 2013; Krasteva, 2016, uniting judicial Greens, reaped benefits grew 9.5 cent. Another linked named Izpravi se! Mafiata vun (‘Get Up! Out mafia’) parliament. Given unwillingness Socialists form (with 26.2 vote), July. Trifonov's defeated narrow 23.8 vote. approach unclear priorities, constructive dialogue personnel decisions another failure government. yet winner, two-month-old PP (Produlzhavame Promyanata ‘Continue Change’), Kiril Petkov Assen Vassilev, who featured President-appointed caretaker interim bridging gap formed. Both Harvard graduates, Vassilev distinguished themselves energy, sensitivity towards socially disadvantaged society willingness challenge administrative agency appointments DPS. young conducted energetic campaign. Benefitting disappointment ITN's government, hope dismantling model, slogan zero tolerance corruption. Thus, Vassilev's won 25.7 vote, 23.2 GERB. shifting support (marginal) can understood reinforcement volatility Todorov internalized polarized view Since 1990s voters punishing ruling unable translate promises effective policies 183). Building this, somewhat optimistic interpretation focus liberal (PP, spectrum (ITN), rejection Borissov's slide authoritarianism. Vassliev's needed, partners governing coalition: 46th parliament, resulting election, highly fragmented. 3 As approached ITN, (an representing Da, Greens). potential determined results, programme intention excluded DPS, character far right, Vuzrazhdane (Revival). An previous murky deals taking behind closed doors process building itself, leadership whose discussions transmitted public. agreement areas. posturing symbolic unexpectedly successful. December announced four-party formed, real achievement. Not answer mixed messages sent electorate, reference promises, personalities. A achievement Petkov's completion innovative Resilience Recovery Plan Commission's approval 7 Domestic press coverage comments obscured approved relatively swiftly praise green digital elements. von der Leyen praised 60 planned investments aimed transition, making greenest date (European Commission, envisaged measures energy deliver mid- long-term gains development independence Russia. Among priorities addressed increase basic old age pensions, abolishing Further steps reforming Combatting Corruption Confiscation Illegally Acquired Property. With changes mandate chairman, Sotir Tzatzarov dismissed, appointment proactive blocked (Paunova Lazarov, steps, able function brief. patchwork arisen Socialists, oldest party, differed profoundly dimensions policy. differences exacerbated wings dividing Europe autocracy marked February Only underlying orientations spotlight. Predictably, impact war stage significant, geographical proximity, historical links divided influenced propaganda coming war, intensification spread fake news opinions promoting noteworthy (Nikolov Sideris, Some politicians, President, supportive aligned interests official stated positions. Minister dismissal minister defence, Stefan Yanev, Yanev's calls neutrality usage term ‘a special operation’ indication conflicts (Oliver, 2022a). late June, expulsion 70 2022b). May 2022, requests Ukrainian assistance weapons munitions Soviet compatible calibre discussed opened rifts within coalition. traditionally adamant allow export donations united Green campaigned invasion, allegiance joint positions sanctions. met increasingly negative authorities, labelling hostile together (Al Jazeera, pressure, packages sanctions adopted reservation became, stop receiving gas Gazprom government's refusal pay roubles, keeping (Bedrov, opposition pro-Ukraine stance formerly ally Vassilev. Radev number statements neutrality, presenting standoff powers breach international Politicians far-right (Revival) openly supported Russia conflict. Next running society, crisis spring 2022 tail-end turbulence Rather lines, developed pro?/anti-reform line, restoring particularistic, patronage undermining displayed difference according rules (mostly Facebook) communication. protagonists sets reformists versus seekers, respectively side June announced, Facebook, he ‘withdrawing ministers’ (RFE/RL His explanation withdrawal finances unsatisfactory ‘made secret deals’ lift occasion treason exploring solutions impasse turn, others revealed grievances allocate funds construction companies contracts open door criterion assessment procurement tenders confidence tabled held 22 successful, partner (Revival), down News, pointed decisive systematic compromising food veterinary border crossing Turkey 2022c) formally opposed bring example illustrates played particularistic involving using maintaining networks also, sometimes, crime. Finally, turning affairs front, issue dominating (informal) Macedonia's negotiations. supporter Balkan candidates up priority shifted autumn opposing framework negotiation position, countries, specified 20 conditions fulfilled Many related ‘the implementation Bulgaria-North friendship treaty 2017’ (Marusic, requirements asked renounce claims region extends beyond country's borders Greece. removal denouncing ‘Bulgarian fascist occupators’ monuments. Zaharieva quoted ‘hatred, anti- falsifications history’ More broadly, observed exporting bilateral part, albeit unintentional, beginning (Preston, 1997). decision-making, unanimity all stages, opportunities imposing veto, used past overtly scenes states. Cases demands referred points disagreement unrelated acquis, Austrian repeal Benes decrees Czech Republic, particularly problematic, go objective framing logic (Telicka Bartak, 2007, 152). Needless say, relating Macedonian language identity fall category represent blatant intrusion already contains unforeseen obstacles. Finding solution reconcile understandings recent history difficult. interwoven perspectives events century issues impossible perspective much overcome current needs sides border, gain popularity appealing past. changed defended Deputy Karakachanov, natural extension so VMRO (Vutreshno Makedonska Revoliutzionna Organizatzia Internal Revolutionary Organization), cabinet VMRO, name suggests, sees itself successor 20th revolutionary struggling liberation Ottoman They strongly focused themes although generally formations. During absence cabinet, represented fora hard-line reiterated Consultative Security chairs convenes. future formation, To neutralize attacks PP, Faced need balance candidate Albania, Ursula Leyen, head Council, pro-active putting options. mid-2022 Foreign ministry negotiated link process, inclusion minority constitution 2022b) Parliament no-confidence Petkov, containing demands, evidence mobilise sentiment. Together vie votes large 80 4 consensus reached Bulgarians whom emotional theme deeply connected struggle just itself. 5 Compromise proposals came advantageous include, among others, carrying pre-liberation VMRO: small VMRO-DPMNE. outlined accounting exceptional pre-accession period, strengthened reformers, added layer complexity, instability. reflecting article, stable configuration. writing, appears consultations succeed may again short window opportunity embark heads committee, banking competition regulators, closing being. weeks office, allies demonstrated huge eradicating corruption, unseen 1990s. last-minute unexpected outcomes well. day confidence, accepted proposal. against, demonstrating overlap. Albeit too historic amended proposed second and, momentous, move 30 decision, information intelligence services, expel espionage grasp whatever think regarding recognition any known supporters them –they mobilization Eurosceptic sentiments Bulgaria. true demonstrations Skopje attest. Bulgarian-Macedonian contain sentiment eschews undermines prosperous countries. integration Europe, processes motion appreciating attend present Turning back possibility exists nationalistic disinformation campaign lead, next return either clientelist leaving South flank area still interest expansionist