Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling of Climate and Non-climatic Determinants Affecting Cereal Production: Empirical Evidence from Somalia

This study investigates the impact of climate and non-climate factors on cereal production in Somalia from 1990 to 2019. The used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach analyze effect CO2, temperature, rainfall, land under production, rural population production. employed ARDL model determine long-run short-run effects variables. results indicate that all variables negatively impacted except for which had a positive both short long run. These findings suggest policymakers should prioritize investment management practices increase Somalia. study's have important implications stakeholders agricultural sector, highlighting need sustainable use policies change adaptation measures ensure country's food security.