Attribution of runoff variations in Tao River and Daxia River based on Budyko Hypothesis

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Mann-Kendall?????????????????????????????????Budyko????????????????????????????????????????????????????????-1.85 mm/a?-1.36 mm/a ?P?0.01??????????????????????1961-1987?????????1988-2017???????????1961-1985???????1986-2017??????????????????????????60%?????????????????10%??????????????????????????;Catchment hydrological progress has been greatly influenced under the background of intensive variability in precipitation, temperature, and land cover/land use due to climate changes human activities. It is desired explore causes basin achieve sustainable management water soil resources. This paper employed Mann-Kendall trend test abrupt point analyze temporal variation runoff Tao River Daxia River. Results showed that annual had a significant decreasing with rate -1.85 -1.36 during past 57 years (1961-2017). We analyzed breakpoint two rivers split whole period into sub-periods at (period 1:before breakpoint; 2:after breakpoint). The can be divided base from 1961 1987 activity affected 1988 2017, whereas 1961-1985 1986-2017 In order detect major cause for decline, elasticity Choudhury-Yang equation water-energy balance based on Budyko hypothesis was applied. change period-1 period-2 catchment response potential evaporation use/cover (represented by ?P, ?ET0, ??), we calculated runoff. Elasticities were their condition aridity index, ET0/P) landscape parameter, ?). results indicated dominant factor accounting more than 60% catchments, followed weakest evapotranspiration, approximately 10%. impact mainly came vegetation increase reforestation conservation practices 30 also partially especially temperature increase. word, underlying surface are main factors causing study area. predicted catchments future scenario without direct historical hydroclimatic data.