Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections

Abstract We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of boreal winter climate, based on forced response ten models from CMIP5 following RCP8.5 scenario. The sea level pressure (SLP) is large North Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic. A major part these uncertainties (31%) marked by a pattern with center northeastern Pacific dipole over Atlantic that we label as Pacific–Atlantic SLP (PA ∆SLP ). PA associated distinct global surface temperature (SST) Arctic ice cover (SIC) perturbation patterns. To better understand nature , SST SIC patterns are prescribed experiments two atmospheric (AGCMs): CAM4 IFS. AGCM responses suggest contributes to models, through tropical–midlatitude interactions Rossby wavetrain. explained combined effect uncertainties, partly related wavetrain air-sea interaction Atlantic. Major discrepancies between northern high-latitudes continental regions indicative arising AGCMs. analyze possible dynamic mechanisms responses, discuss limitations this work.