Application of All-Ages Lead Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation of Preschool Children’s Exposure to Lead in Guangdong Province, China

Introduction: Lead (Pb) poisoning in children is a major public health issue worldwide. The physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK model) has been extensively utilized Pb exposure risk assessment and can connect external with biological monitoring data. This study aimed to combine Monte Carlo simulation the all-ages lead (ALLM) quantify heterogeneity uncertainty of certain parameters population. on (ALLM + MC) were localized Guangdong Province. Our discusses practicability application ALLM MC Methods: A local sensitivity analysis was used assess impact prediction blood level (BLL). Environmental concentration, parameters, sensitive included MC, differences between ALLM- MC-predicted values compared. Additionally, we them evaluate BLL preschool from Finally, compared predictive those observed literature. Results: had significant correlation (r = 0.969, p < 0.001). value range. Moreover, there no Province (z −0.319, 0.749). Except for aged 5–6, difference less than 1 μg/dL. root mean square error (RMSE) deviation (RMD) reduced by 24.73% 32.83%, respectively. Conclusions: more suitable predicting Province, which be explain fewer time, space, financial restrictions, making it appropriate determining BLLs large populations. use would improve feasibility regular long-term detection.