Analyzing of the ENSO Index Using Extreme Value Theory

We predicted the extreme values of ENSO index, Niño3.4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing accuracy Generalized Pareto (GP) model fitted to index SOI are shown, all four support GP model. Because shape parameter was negative, had a finite upper limit. In contrast, that zero, therefore did not have limit, there is possibility significant risk will occur. maximum return level periods 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, 500 years their respective 95% confidence intervals, CI. The 10-year, 100-year levels were estimated be 2.41, 2.62, with CI [2.22, 2.59], [2.58, 2.66], respectively. 2.65 in 2015/16 super El Niño, which phenomenon occurs once every years. 2.51 1982/83, 1997/98 20 Recently, large Niño event small probability occurrence has occurred. response global warming, events becoming more likely