Analytical forecasting of long-term railway track settlement

Railway tracks undergo plastic settlement when subject to repeated train loading. This occurs differentially along the track rather than in a uniform manner, and profile is key parameter scheduling maintenance operations. Therefore this paper presents novel numerical approach predict irregularity evolution. The model combines empirical laws with finite element theory, where track-ground structure modelled explicitly, multi-body train-track interaction considered. stresses induced by rolling stock are solved using hybrid frequency-wavenumber time–space approach, considering non-linear track-soil material behaviour. It has several novelties: 1) after every load passage, updated before applying next load, meaning constantly evolving; 2) new derived that account for evolving forces profiles; 3) fully 3D stress fields ground First described, validating its prediction of geometry evolution, captured from recording vehicles. Next, it’s used show modelling error introduced if isn’t frequently (e.g. passage). Finally, parametric study shows subgrade properties have marked effect on settlement.