Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5‐T2m
نویسندگان
چکیده
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 high, 4.51-6.00 {\deg}C) and compared against ERA5-T2m records 1980-1990 2011-2021. We found that all with > 3.0 overestimate observed surface warming spatial t-statistics rejects data-model agreement over 60% (using low-ECS GCMs) 81% high-ECS Earth's surface. Thus, high medium-ECS unfit for prediction purposes. not fully satisfactory yet, but they unalarming because by 2050 predict a moderate ($\Delta T_{preindustrial\rightarrow2050}\lesssim2\:{^\circ}C$).
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716