A Unified Theory of Human Judgements and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Complexity: a grounded theory approach

The topic of this paper contributes to understand the process of decision-making under uncertainty and complexity. The researcher’s main concern is to explain how decision-makers within uncertain and complex contexts make a decision. The methodology selected was Grounded Theory Methodology (GTM) which aims to develop a theory grounded in empirical data obtained in the research context.

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

Decision Making under Extreme Uncertainty

Beliefs about an unknown distribution can be defined as a measure on the space of probability density functions. This paper (1) characterizes the set of beliefs that satisfy invariance postulates (2) establishes that updating invariant beliefs leads to a posterior distribution with tail asymptotically approaching 1 x(lnx)n . Note to seminar participant at Wharton: Part I of this paper is primar...

Decision Making under Interval Uncertainty

To make a decision, we must find out the user’s preference, and help the user select an alternative which is the best – according to these preferences. Traditional decision theory is based on a simplifying assumption that for each two alternatives, a user can always meaningfully decide which of them is preferable. In reality, often, when the alternatives are close, the user is often unable to s...