A synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques
A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
متن کاملA synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques vlJ / N " " ; : / J - ;
A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month~by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
متن کاملSolar Cycle Prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the sta...
متن کاملSolar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the az-imuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the equator as a pre-dicto...
متن کاملSolar Flare M-class Prediction Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques
Currently, astronomical data have increased in terms of volume and complexity. To bring out the information in order to analyze and predict, the artificial intelligence techniques are required. This paper aims to apply artificial intelligence techniques to predict M-class solar flare. Artificial neural network, support vector machine and naïve bayes techniques are compared to define the best pr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
سال: 1999
ISSN: 0148-0227
DOI: 10.1029/1999ja900313