A statistical solar flare forecast method

نویسندگان

چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A prac...

متن کامل

Solar Flare Cycles

We present a review of different solar flare periodicity intervals. Our analysis includes a statistical investigation of flare occurrence and N-S hemispheric distribution over the last three 11-yr solar cycles (SCs 21-23, corresponding to the period 1976-2001). Moreover, we try to estimate if there is any connection between the flare activity and the strength of solar cycles. For that purpose, ...

متن کامل

Statistical Modeling of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission

A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 19881992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is well described by a FARIMA time series with Pareto innovations. The model is characterized by two effects. One of them is a long-range dependence (longterm memo...

متن کامل

A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However, these methods largely ignore the number of flares the active region has already produced, in particular the number of small events. The past history of occurrence of ...

متن کامل

Diagnostics of solar flare reconnection

Part of Special Issue " Nonlinear processes in solar-terrestrial physics and dynamics of Earth-Ocean-System " Abstract. We present new diagnostics of the solar flare reconnection, mainly based on the plasma radio emission. We propose that the high-frequency (600–2000 MHz) slowly drifting pulsating structures map the flare magnetic field re-connection. These structures correspond to the radio em...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Space Weather

سال: 2005

ISSN: 1542-7390

DOI: 10.1029/2004sw000131