A Stationary Drake Equation Distribution as a Balance of Birth-death Processes

نویسندگان

چکیده

Previous critiques of the Drake Equation have highlighted its deterministic nature, implying that number civilizations is same at all times. Here, I build upon earlier work and present a stochastic formulation. The birth within galaxy modeled as following uniform rate (Poisson) process, with mean $\lambda_C$. Each then experiences constant hazard collapse, which defines an exponential distribution parameter $\lambda_L$. Thus, viewed frothing landscape civilization collapse. Under these assumptions, show N in must follow another Poisson distribution, $(\lambda_C/\lambda_L)$. This used to rigorously demonstrate why Copernican Principle does not allow one infer N, well evaluating algebraic probability being alone galaxy.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Research notes of the AAS

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2515-5172']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/2515-5172/abeb7b