A Spatially Detailed Projection of Environmental Conditions in the Arctic Initiated by Climate Change

The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to effects climate change. We focus on territory Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). objective this study is project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in state and natural environment YaNAO. For purpose, CMIP6 data models with change scenario SSP5-8.5 were used. Climate directly affects statistics extreme events climatically driven phenomena, such as frosts thaws, well avalanches slush flows. causes environment, primarily due permafrost degradation, leading important modifications mudflows, cryogenic landslides, abrasion, erosion, suffusion, frost heave, solifluction, thermokarst, others. In some cases, intensity area these processes increase, heaving thermokarst becoming more active by 2050. other solifluction decrease south part YaNAO discontinuous or sporadic distribution. Projected climatic will inevitably lead restructuring geosystems YaNAO, creating risks for infrastructure economically territories.