A simulation-based product diffusion forecasting method using geometric Brownian motion and spline interpolation
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A simulation-based product diffusion forecasting method using geometric Brownian motion and spline interpolation
This study addresses the problem of stochasticity in forecasting diffusion of a new product with scarce historical data. Demand uncertainties are calibrated using a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. The spline interpolation (SI) method and curve fitting process have been utilized to obtain parameters of the constructed GBM-based differential equation over the product’s life cycle (PLC). ...
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2) and 3) together can be summarized by: If t0 = 0 < t1 < t2 < · · · < tk, then the increment rvs B(ti) − B(ti−1), i ∈ {1, . . . k}, are independent with B(ti) − B(ti−1) ∼ N(0, ti − ti−1) (normal with mean 0 and variance ti − ti−1). In particular, B(ti) − B(ti−1) is independent of B(ti−1) = B(ti−1)−B(0). If we only wish to simulate B(t) at one fixed value t, then we need only generate a unit no...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Cogent Business & Management
سال: 2017
ISSN: 2331-1975
DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2017.1300992