A probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for Iran

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as the most prevalent approach to evaluate earthquake hazard, is commonly based on catalogs. Although previous studies show that recurrence time of large-magnitude (Mw> 7.0) events in Iran more than ~ 1000–2000 years, available instrumentally recorded earthquakes are limited less 100 years. With idea having another proxy for seismicity rates, we propose a methodology activity rates from strain combination regional estimates \(\beta\) and \(m_{\max }\). Considering comprehensive deformation model Iranian Plateau, found deformation-based occurrence catalog-based all seismotectonic provinces Plateau. The ratios rate between 1.34 2.35. For first time, probabilistic plateau also developed Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values 10% 2% POEs 50 years estimated. highest levels PGA Azerbaijan Alborz provinces, where value located. except Zagros region, spatial averages with POE up 23% higher those traditional hazard.