A Markov-switching regression model with non-Gaussian innovations: estimation and testing

Estimation of Markov Regime-Switching Regression Models with Endogenous Switching

Following Hamilton (1989), estimation of Markov regime-switching regressions typically relies on the assumption that the latent state variable controlling regime change is exogenous. We relax this assumption and develop a parsimonious model of endogenous Markov regime-switching. Inference via maximum likelihood estimation is possible with relatively minor modifications to existing recursive fil...

Surrogate testing of linear feedback processes with non - Gaussian innovations

Surrogate testing of linear feedback processes with non-Gaussian innovations Radhakrishnan Nagarajan Abstract Surrogate testing is used widely to determine the nature of the process generating the given empirical sample. In the present study, the usefulness of phase-randomized surrogates, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (AAFT) and iterated amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) surro...

A General Autoregressive Model with Markov Switching: Estimation and Consistency

In this paper, a general autoregressive model with Markov switching is considered, where the autoregression may be of an infinite order. The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators for this model is obtained under regular assumptions. Examples of finite and infinite order Markov switching AR models are discussed. The simulation study with these examples illustrates the consistency and ...

Nonparametric estimation of a switching regression model

Bayesian Portfolio Selection in a Markov Switching Gaussian Mixture Model

Departure from normality poses implementation barriers to the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection. When assets are affected by common and idiosyncratic shocks, the distribution of asset returns may exhibit Markov switching regimes and have a Gaussian mixture distribution conditional on each regime. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using the Gibbs sampler. An application to...