A Markov-Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence*
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A Markov Switching Model of GNP Growth With Duration Dependence
We use a regime-switching model of real GNP growth to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. The model extends Hamilton (1989) and Durland and McCurdy (1994) and is estimated using both the postwar NIPA data and the secular data constructed by Balke-Gordon. We find that an expansion is more likely to end at a young age, that a contraction is more likely to end at an old age, that o...
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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Hamilton's nonlinear Markovian filter is extended to allow...
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Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is controlled by unobserved random variables that form a first-order Markov chain. Explicit-duration MSMs contain additional variables that explicitly model the d...
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While there has been a great deal of interest in the modelling of non-linearities in economic time series, there is no clear consensus regarding the forecasting abilities of non-linear time series models. We evaluate the performance of two leading non-linear models in forecasting post-war US GNP, the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model and the Markov-switching autoregressive model. Two...
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We propose and illustrate a Markov-switching multi-fractal duration (MSMD) model for analysis of inter-trade durations in financial markets. We establish several of its key properties with emphasis on high persistence (indeed long memory). Empirical exploration suggests MSMD’s superiority relative to leading competitors. Acknowledgments: For outstanding research assistance we thank Matthew Klei...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Economic Review
سال: 2004
ISSN: 0020-6598,1468-2354
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2004.00121.x