A Fractal Prediction Method for Safety Monitoring Deformation of Core Rockfill Dams

Deformation mechanism in the core rockfill dams with heavy load and high-stress level is difficult to predict control, which one of key problems be solved dam operation safety management control. Aiming at large error obtained by parameter-based functional models (regression model, grey theory etc.) deformation prediction dams, a fractal method its technical process combining variable dimension "metabolism" data are proposed through analyzing adaptability characteristics original monitoring based on resealed-range (R/S) theory. It effectively solves constant accumulation transformation greatly provides new way for early warning. The trend analysis Pubugou show that information has good corresponding relationship physical causes, line actual state dam. Compared traditional stepwise regression method, results this paper high accuracy, implying improved effective Hurst index applicable evaluation trend.