Forecast horizons are de ned as long enough planning horizons that ensure agreement of rst period optimal production decisions of nite and in nite horizon problems regardless of changes in future demand. In this paper, we prove forecast horizon existence and provide computational procedures for production planning problems that satisfy the following monotonicity property: for any xed nite plann...

The paper examines within a uni…ed methodology expectational coordination in a series of economic models. The methodology views the predictions associated with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis as reasonable whenever they can be derived from more basic Common Knowledge hypothesis. The paper successively considers a simple non noisy N-dimensional model, standard models with " intrinsic " unce...

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The VAR parameters estimates are then used to compute real returns conditional volatility across investme...

We examine the dynamic pricing decision of a …rm facing random demand while selling a …xed stock of two di¤erentiated products over an in…nite horizon. Prices in each period depend on the available stock of both products (varieties). In addition to the standard tradeo¤ between a higher revenue and the probability of selling the product, a higher price for one product also a¤ects the probability...

We study the development of a social norm of trust and reciprocity via the contagious strategy as de ned in Kandori (1992) among a group of strangers. The players anonymously and randomly meet each other and play a binary trust game in the in nite horizon. In order to provide the investors with proper incentives to follow the contagious strategy, the su cient condition requires that there exist...

We prove theorems pertaining to periodic arrays of spherical obstacles which show how the macroscopic limit of the mean free path depends on the scaling of the size of the obstacles. We treat separately the cases where the obstacles are totally and partially absorbing, and we also distinguish between two-dimensional arrays, where our results are optimal, and higher dimensional arrays where they...

We characterise the subgame perfect equilibrium of a di¤erential market game with hyperbolic inverse demand where …rms are quantity-setters and accumulate capacity over time à la Ramsey. The related Hamilton-JacobiBellman are solved in closed form both on in…nite and on …nite horizon setups and the optimal strategies are determined. Then, we analyse the feasibility of horizontal mergers in both...

This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of portfolios that sustain Pareto optimal allocations. We consider an in…nite horizon stochastic endowment economy where the actual process of the states of nature consists in i.i.d draws from a common probability distribution. The economy is populated by many Bayesian agents with heterogeneous prior beliefs over the stochastic process of the states of...

This paper studies the interpretation of physics near a Schwarzschild black hole. A scenario for creation and growth is proposed that avoids the conundrum of information loss. In this picture the horizon recedes as it is approached and has no physical reality. Radiation is likely to occur, but it cannot be predicted.