We present results of an implementation of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea ice dynamics scheme into the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model HadCM3. Although the large-scale simulation of sea ice in HadCM3 is quite good with this model, the lack of a full dynamical model leads to errors in the detailed representation of sea ice and limits our confidence in its future predi...

We study the dependence of the simulated ENSO on the mean simulated climate in the HadCM3 GCM and attempt to understand its relation with results from intermediate-complexity models (ICMs). Our aim is to bridge an existing gap between results from complex GCMs and from more readily understandable ICMs, and thereby to improve our process-based prediction skills of the potential sensitivity of ob...

We combine the ensembles from two different experiments to study the climate sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model subject to parametric uncertainty. We use a statistical framework based around linked emulators, where expert judgements are required to quantify the relationship between the two ensembles. Detailed diagnostics are presented. As an application, we perform a sensitivity analysis f...

This study focuses on the assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of ENSO variability and its winter climate teleconnections to North America in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations of twentieth-century climate. The 1950–99 period simulations of six IPCC models are analyzed in an effort to benchmark models in the simulation of this...

Climate change is one of the leading issues affecting river basins due to its direct impacts on cryosphere and hydrosphere. General circulation models (GCMs) are widely applied tools assess climate but coarse spatial resolution GCMs limit their application for local studies. This study selected five CMIP5 (CCSM4, HadCM3, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3 CanESM2) performance evaluation ranked by Nash–Sutclif...

By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and...

This study focused on the Upper Manyame sub-catchment which covers an area of approximately 3 786 km2 and forms part catchment, one seven catchments Zimbabwe. catchment has its source in Marondera town drains into Zambezi River downstream Kariba Dam upstream Cahora Bassa Dam, northern country. assessed potential climate change impacts streamflow reservoir inflows sub-catchment. Hydrologic simul...

This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ESD if available. Abstract The role of extra-tropical vegetation on the large-scale tropical circulation is examined in the version 3 Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3). Alternative representations of present day vegetation from observations and a dynami...