as a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. on the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy cons...

abstract nowadays, due to the environmental uncertainty and rapid development of new technologies, economic variables are often predicted by using less data and short-term timeframes. therefore, prediction methods which require fewer amounts of data are needed. auto regressive integrated moving average (arima) model and artificial neural networks (anns) need large amounts of data to achieve acc...

population in all countries plays a fundamental role in economic growth and economic development. but besides absolute size and growth rate of population, the more important factor will be “age structure” or “age distribution” of population, because it can be as source of many economical, social, and political challenges. in this research, we investigate effect of changes in population shares i...

the economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. this paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil ...

We consider linear time-invariant networks with unknown interaction topology where only a subset of the nodes, termed manifest, can be directly controlled and observed. The remaining nodes are termed latent and their number is also unknown. Our goal is to identify the transfer function of the manifest subnetwork and determine whether interactions between manifest nodes are direct or mediated by...

This work concernes the contrast difference test and its asymptotic properties for non linear auto-regressive models. Our approach is based on an application of the parametric bootstrap method. It is a re-sampling method based on the estimate parameters of the models. The resulting methodology is illustrated by simulations of multilayer perceptron models, and an asymptotic justification is give...