A significant reduction (increase) of tropical storm activity over the Atlantic basin is observed during El Niño (La Niña) events. Furthermore, the number of Atlantic tropical storms displays an interdecadal variability with more storms in the 1950s and 1960s than in the 1970s and 1980s. Ensembles of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are used to explore the mechan...

Dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical storm frequency require robust and efficient algorithms for detection and tracking of tropical storms in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Tropical storms are generally detected when dynamic and thermodynamic variables meet specified criteria. Here, it is shown that objectively defined modeland basin-dependent detection criteria improve sim...

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the three-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortices to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with re-analyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Wea...

The impact of future anthropogenic forcing on the frequency of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin has been the subject of intensive investigation. However, whether the number of North Atlantic tropical storms will increase or decrease in a warmer climate is still heavily debated and a consensus has yet to be reached. To shed light on this issue, the authors use a recently developed sta...

Rotating radiative–convective equilibrium, using the column physics and resolution of GCMs, is proposed as a useful framework for studying the tropical storm–like vortices produced by global models. These equilibria are illustrated using the column physics and dynamics of a version of the GFDL Atmospheric Model 2 (AM2) at resolutions of 220, 110, and 55 km in a large 2 10 km square horizontally...

[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/ change or with changes in observing syst...

Data are presented indicating the complexity and highly variable response of beaches to cold front passages along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to the impacts of tropical cyclones and winter storms. Within the past decade, an increase in the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes impacting the northern Gulf has dramatically altered the long-term equilibrium of a large portion of...

Tropical storms, such as cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, present major threats to coastal communities. Around two million people worldwide have died and millions have been injured over the past two centuries as a result of tropical storms. Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with around 718 000 deaths from them in the past 50 years. However, cyclone-related mortality in...

giving way to near-neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of the year. Despite the cessation of El Niño during the boreal spring, the ENSO warm event affected regional precipitation anomalies over a broad area of the Pacific basin, including wet anomalies along the west coast of South America, and dry anomalies in eastern Australia, the southwest Pacific, and Hawaii. The global mean surface ...