This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions ability to flexibly whole distribution inflation. In order make our approach accessible and relevant forecasting, we derive an efficient Gibbs sampler by transforming stat...

Article history: Received 16 June 2009 Accepted 19 April 2010 Available online xxxx JEL classification: E31 E50 E52 E58 F41

in this study, 3 models of time-varying parameters (tvp), dynamic model selection (dms) and dynamic model averaging (dma) and a comparison with the ordinary least squares (ols) method in matlab in the time period 2003-2013 (with data on a monthly basis) are discussed. in the present study, the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation in oil price foreca...

I nflation forecast is one of the tools in targeting inflation by the central bank. The most important problem of previous models to forecast the inflation is that they could not provide a correct prediction over time. However, the central bank policymakers shall seek to create economic stability by ignoring the short-term and temporary changes in price and regarding steady inflation...

Search is embeded in an overlapping-generations model. Young people participate a centralized market and a decentralized market sequentially and olds only participates the centralized market. The demographic feature allows analytical tractability. In a series examples, positve inflation rates are Pareto optimal. JEL classification: E31

abstract the purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis first proposed by romer (1993); suggesting that inflation is lower in more open economies. according to this hypothesis, central banks have a lower incentive to engineer surprise inflations in more-open economies because the phillips curve is steeper. furthermore, comparing with other empirical studies, this paper has used the new kof...

In this study, 3 models of Time-Varying Parameters (TVP), Dynamic Model Selection (DMS) and Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and a comparison with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method in MATLAB in the time period 2003-2013 (with data on a monthly basis) are discussed. In the present study, the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation in oil price foreca...

In this study, 3 models of Time-Varying Parameters (TVP), Dynamic Model Selecting (DMS) and Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and their comparison via the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method in MATLAB in the time period 2003-2013 (monthly) are discussed. In the present study the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation oil price forecast returns for stocks ...

In this paper the authors explore the ability of simple monetary models with bounded rationality to account for the joint distribution of money and prices. They impose restrictions on the size of the mistakes agents can make in equilibrium and argue that countries with high inflation are likely to satisfy these restrictions. Their computations show that the model with bounded rationality does n...

We estimate the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) on United Kingdom data. Our estimates suggest that price stickiness is a more important source of nominal rigidity in the U.K. than wage stickiness. Our estimates of parameters governing investment behavior are only well behaved when post-1979 observations are included, which reflects govern...