this paper presents an analytic procedure for the value added to different production levels with different policy options. the approach is stochastic and thus provides a framework for informed decision-making on productivity growth under uncertainty conditions. the model was applied to data collected from a firm and re-sults recommend that the firm should redevelop if in diversification and sy...

Using a dynamic model of heterogeneous beliefs where investors agree to disagree, this paper shows: (i) beliefs may diverge, which prevents pessimists from providing liquidity. This prediction is supported by the analyst target price forecasts for ten major banks during the crisis since 2007; (ii) in the case that beliefs cross (i.e., pessimists become more optimistic than the initial optimists...

Real investments involving irreversibility and ambiguity embed a positive quasi−option value under ambiguity (q.o.v.a.), which modifies the evaluation of an investment decision involving depletion of natural resources by increasing the value of delaying. Q.o.v.a. depends on the specific decision−maker attitude towards ambiguity, expressed by a capacity on the state space. An empirical measure o...

We study the timing-of-extraction problem facing a decentralized mine owner when extraction entails environmental damage. As expected, when the environmental damage from mining is known, the socially optimal timing will depend on the magnitude of the damage relative to these costs in the rest of the world. But when environmental damage is uncertain, and these costs are revealed over time, a qua...