This paper presents a simple empirical approach to modeling and forecasting market option prices using localized option regressions (LOR). LOR projects market option prices over localized regions of their state space and is robust to assumptions regarding the underlying asset dynamics (e.g. log-normality) and volatility structure. Our empirical study using three years of daily S&P500 options sh...

introduction: risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. on the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. given that the can...

In this paper, we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian commodity prices fluctuations. We used the daily closed Unwashed Lekempti grade 5 (ULK5) coffee and Whitish Wollega Sesame Seed Grade3 (WWSS3) prices obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse the prices fluctuations.The natures of log-returns of the prices exhibit a...

In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncerta...

a model of the iranian wheat market is specified and fitted to data from 1981-2008. severaldiagnostic tests were employed in the analysis to determine the specification of the model. despitethe simplicity of the model and data problems, an examination of the econometric model leads toseveral conclusions with possible important policy implications for the wheat economy in iran.the general result...

Examining society’s preferences for any change in the status of wetlands, can translate their direct and indirect benefits into monetary values and provide useful information for the policy makers and planners. Hoor-al-Azim Wetland (also Hoor-al-Hoveizeh) is one of the four large wetlands with an area of over 125 thousand hectares located in Khuzestan province located in southwestern Iran on it...

option contracts are one of the most important financial instruments which have been recently considered as a vehicle for management of risks and development of capital market. in iran, the importance of option contracts is increasingly recognized in the capital market. in this article the legal aspects of option contracts will be examined. for this purpose the views of islamic jurists and lawy...

A common problem is to choose a “risk neutral” measure in an incomplete market in asset pricing models. We show in this paper that in some circumstances it is possible to choose a unique “equivalent local martingale measure” by completing the market with option prices. We do this by modeling the behavior of the stock price X , together with the behavior of the option prices for a relevant famil...