T he main purpose of this article is to analyze exchange rate behavior based on monetary fundamentals in the context of Iranian economy over the period 1990:2 to 2014:3. To do so, two monetary exchange rate models is investigated, the first by regarding interest rate differential as a monetary variable, and the second one regardless of interest rate differential as a monetary variabl...

A common method to study the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables is using linear time series models; however, they are unable to explain nonlinear behavior of the series. Given the dependency between stock market and derivatives, the behavior of the underlying asset price can be modeled using Markov switching process properties and the economic regime significance. In this paper, a two-...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence. For this purpose, Vector Auto Regression method and Markov Switching model is used for quarterly data during 1989:4 -2014:3. The results show that, the impact of liquidity growth and exchange rate misalignment on inflation persistence is positive. On the other hand, GDP growth has a ne...

Continuous time modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985) stochastic model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study daily foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. The Expectation-Maximization algorithm is extended, generalized, applied to a more general class of regime switching models ...

Title of thesis: COMPARING REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS IN TIME SERIES: LOGISTIC MIXTURES: vs. MARKOV SWITCHING Dimitrios V. Paliouras Master of Science, 2007 Thesis directed by: Professor Benjamin Kedem Department of Mathematics The purpose of this thesis is to review several related regime-switching time series models. Specifically, we use simulated data to compare models where the unobserved stat...

We discuss the data available for the TSE 300 and S&P 500 total return indexes. We consider a number of models, including the Wilkie model and regime switching models. We discuss calibration by maximum likelihood and by Markov chain Monte Carlo for the regime switching lognormal model. We then show how to use this model to price and hedge simple segregated fund maturity guarantees. keywords: Re...

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic growth over business cycles in Iran. Estimating the models using the Hamilton (1989) Markov-switching model and by employing the data for 1960-2012, the results well identify two regimes characterized as expansion and recession. Moreover, the results show that an expansionary monetary policy has a positive and statist...