A laboratory experiment and two field studies were used to compare the accuracy of three methods that allow judgmental forecasts to be integrated with statistical methods. In all three studies the judgmental forecaster had exclusive access to contextual (or non time-series) information. The three methods compared were: (i) statistical correction of judgmental biases using Theil’s optimal linear...

This research examines the association between external auditors’ position in their firm (rank) and their consideration of fraud risk factors when planning an audit. Included in this examination is a study of the relationship between rank and judgmental agreement among auditors concerning the effects of risk factors on the extent of substantive testing. Results reveal that, when planning the ex...

All judgmental forecasts will be affected by the inherent unreliability, or inconsistency, of the judgment process. Psychologists have studied this problem extensively, but forecasters rarely address it. Researchers and theorists describe two types of unreliability that can reduce the accuracy of judgmental forecasts: (1) unreliability of information acquisition, and (2) unreliability of inform...