The paper suggests an improvement of Holt method for irregular time series as was presented by Wright. The modification deals with problem of time-close observations, i.e. two subsequent observations with time distance much shorter than in average. If this situation occurs in time series when using the original Wright’s formulae, one can obtain seriously wrong results. Simulation study is provi...

The Fellegi-Holt method automatically “corrects” data that fail some predefined requirements. Computer implementations of the method were used in many national statistics agencies but are less used now because they are slow. We recast the method in propositional logic, and show that many of its results are well-known results in propositional logic. In particular we show that the Fellegi-Holt me...

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Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...

Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...

three mesh sizes of multiflament trammel nets (22 mm, 24 mm, and 26 mm) were used in finike bay for red mullet (mullus barbatus l., 1758). the sampling program was arranged during february to may 2012. holt (1963) method was used for selectivity of trammel nets. red mullet was the dominant species in 22 mm mesh size at 52.86%, followed by 25.7% with the 24 mm net and 21.43% with the 26 mm net. ...

Various experimental procedures aimed at measuring individual risk aversion involve a list of pairs of alternative prospects. We first study the widely used method by Holt and Laury (2002), for which we find that the removal of some items from the lists yields a systematic decrease in risk aversion. This bias is quite distinct from other confounds that have been previously observed in the use o...

Multiplicative trend exponential smoothing has received very little attention in the literature. It involves modelling the local slope by smoothing successive ratios of the local level, and this leads to a forecast function that is the product of level and growth rate. By contrast, the popular Holt method uses an additive trend formulation. It has been argued that more real series have multipli...

This paper uses minute-by-minute British electricity demand observations to evaluate methods for prediction from 10 to 30 minutes ahead. Such very short lead times are important for the real-time scheduling of electricity generation. We consider methods designed to capture both the intraday and the intraweek seasonal cycles in the data, including ARIMA modelling, an adaptation of Holt-Winters e...