a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: O43 O16 E44 E31 Keywords: Banking sector Stock market Economic growth Granger causality ASEAN countries This paper examines the relationship between banking sector development, stock market development, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries for the period 1961–2012. Using principal component analysis for the construc...

In this paper, we discuss the properties of mixed graphs which visualize causal relationships between the components of multivariate time series. In these Granger-causality graphs, the vertices, representing the components of the time series, are connected by arrows according to the Granger-causality relations between the variables whereas lines correspond to contemporaneous conditional associa...

In this paper we use the frequency domain Granger causality test of Breitung/Candelon (2006) to analyse short and long-run causality between energy prices and prices of food commodities. We find that the oil price Granger causes all the considered food prices. However, when controlling for business cycle fluctuations this link exists especially at low frequencies. Thus, short-run phenomena like...

In this paper we develop a dynamic discrete-time bivariate probit model, in which the conditions for Granger non-causality can be represented and tested. The conditions for simultaneous independence are also worked out. The model is extended in order to allow for covariates, representing individual as well as time heterogeneity. The proposed model can be estimated by Maximum Likelihood. Granger...

In this paper, we consider the role of “leads” of the first difference of integrated variables in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models. Specifically, we investigate Stock and Watson’s (1993) claim that the role of leads is related to the concept of Granger causality by a Monte Carlo simulation. From the simulation results, we find that the dynamic OLS estimator without ...

iran is one of the most concentrated areas of afghan migrants and refugees. most afghans dispersed throughout the country mixed with iranian households. the majority of afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. this study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between afghan immigrants and two main labor market indicators, average wages and unemployment...

Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and istitutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even...

Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and istitutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even...

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...

abstract in this paper, we examine relationship between financial intermediary development variables and values added of agricultural sector in iran during 1352 to 1385. the five indices derived from the banking system as a financial intermediary development indicators, that define in related to the agricultural sector, and with the introduction of statistic methods of factor analysis and its a...