This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on the dollar/yen exchange rate, using structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. We compare our estimates of the impulse responses with those based on levels Vector Autoregression. We also compare results from short run and long run restrictions imposed on the structural VECM. We find evidence of overshooting b...

Two related issues are seldom jointly addressed in the cross market price discovery literature: i) a model that focuses on non-price parameter, ii) testing a non-price parameter model against a price parameter model. We have two objectives in this paper. First, develop a joint trade direction model (JTDM) from the single market model in Madhavan, Richardson and Roomans (1997). Second, estimate ...

Vector error -correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly popular in their applications to financial markets. Standard VECM models assume that the cointegrating vectors are of full rank such that they contain no zero elements. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are indeed possible. The existence of zero entries has not been fully...

This article offers a comparison of short-term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U+S+ meat consumption+ Four static demand systems ~AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM! and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model ~VECM! are considered+ We tested the equality of mean square forecast errors+ We also investigated the possibility of forecast encompassing among competing mo...

Recently, we took part in a project with two local companies about the creation of a UML-based Model Driven rigorous method to develop VECM-based systems. VECM is a way to abstract from the details of different Enterprise Content Management (ECM) systems used within the same organization. This report details the experience made using our method to develop V-Protocol: a system able to protocol, ...

We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run...

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. In the forecasting analysis, pooled forecasts constructed by taking the median value across the point forecasts generated by the linear VECM and the STVECMs generally ...

Given a compact manifold M , we prove that any bracket generating and invariant under multiplication on smooth functions family of vector fields on M generates the connected component of unit of the group DiffM . Let M be a smooth n-dimensional compact manifold, VecM the space of smooth vector fields on M and Diff0M the group of isotopic to the identity diffeomorphisms of M . Given f ∈ VecM , w...