Atmosphere-ocean coupling effect on the frequency distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and its future change is studied using an atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). In the present climate simulation, the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the AOGCM improves biases in the AGCM such as the poleward shift of the maximum of intense TC distribution in the Northern Hemisphere...

[1] Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rDT between radiative forcing F and global mean surface air temperature change DT. The same is a good description of DT from CMIP3 AOGCMs integrated with CO2 increasing at 1% per year compounded. The constant ‘‘climate resistance’’ r is related to the t...

The possibility of a rapid collapse in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with associated impacts on climate, has long been recognized. The suggested basis for this risk is the existence of two stable regimes of the AMOC (‘on’ and ‘off’), and such bistable behaviour has been identified in a range of simplified climate models. However, up to now, no state-of-...

Holocene climate variability is investigated in the North Pacific and North Atlantic realms, using alkenone-derived sea-surface temperature (SST) records as well as a millennial scale simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The alkenone SST data indicate a temperature increase over almost the entire North Pacific from 7 cal kyr BP to the present. A dipole p...

Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle mo...

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic. In this paper, we take a forecaster’s perspective in reviewing established principles for validating the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used in most climate forecasting, and in particula...