We develop an equivalence between the equilibrium effects of incomplete information and those two behavioral distortions: myopia, or extra discounting future; anchoring current behavior to past behavior, as in models with habit persistence adjustment costs. show how these distortions depend on higher-order beliefs GE mechanisms, they can be disciplined by evidence expectations. finally illustra...

In this paper, we study out-of-equilibrium dynamics with decentralized exchange (bilateral bargaining between randomly matched pairs of agents). We characterise the conditions under which out-of-equilibrium trading convergences to efficient allocations even when agents are myopic and have limited information and show, numerically, that the rate of convergence to efficient allocations is exponen...

In this paper, we study out-of-equilibrium dynamics with decentralized exchange (bilateral bargaining between randomly matched pairs of agents). We characterise the conditions under which out-of-equilibrium trading convergences to efficient allocations even when agents are myopic and have limited information. We show, numerically, that the rate of convergence to efficient allocations is exponen...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions ability to flexibly whole distribution inflation. In order make our approach accessible and relevant forecasting, we derive an efficient Gibbs sampler by transforming stat...

In this paper we argue that in realistically calibrated two period general equilibrium models with incomplete markets CAPM-pricing provides a good benchmark for equilibrium prices even when agents are not mean-variance optimizers and returns are not normally distributed. We numerically approximate equilibria for a variety of di erent speci cations for preferences, endowments and dividends and c...