This paper provides a simple dynamic optimization model of durable goods inventories. Closed-form solutions are derived in a general equilibrium environment with imperfect information and serially correlated shocks. The model is then applied to scrutinize some popular conjectures regarding the causes of the volatility reduction of GDP since 1984. JEL Classification: E22, E23, E32.

Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does type matter? We propose novel SVAR identification strategy address these questions via inequality constraints on structural shocks. find that sharply higher macroeconomic recessions often output shocks, while financial markets likely fluctuations. (JEL D81...

Using a new dataset on imports of technology and total factor productivity (TFP) over more than a century for the OECD countries, this paper tests for international technological transmission through trade. The empirical estimates suggest that imports of knowledge have been responsible for an almost 200% increase in TFP over the past century, but that the spillover effect has been highly uneven...

We quantify the role of population aging in structural transformation process. Household-level data from United States show that fraction expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. use a shift-share decomposition and quantitative model US accounted for about fifth observed increase service share consumption between 1982 2016. The contribution rise is same size as real income...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

This paper provides a dynamic optimization model of durable good inventories to study the interactions between investment demand and production of capital goods. There are three major findings: First, capital suppliers’ inventory behavior makes investment demand more volatile in equilibrium; Second, equilibrium price of capital is characterized by downward stickiness; Third, the responses of th...

Using a new dataset on imports of technology and total factor productivity (TFP) over more than a century for the OECD countries, this paper tests for international technological transmission through trade. The empirical estimates suggest that imports of knowledge have been responsible for an almost 200% increase in TFP over the past century, but that the spillover effect has been highly uneven...

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population across states estimate impact on growth GDP per capita for 1980–2010. find that each 10 percent increase fraction age 60+ decreased by 5.5 percent. One-third reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due labor productivity Labor compensation and wages also decli...

We study the optimal lock-down for a planner who controls fatalities of COVID-19 while minimizing output costs lock-down. The policy prescribes severe beginning few weeks after outbreak, covering almost 50 percent population month, with total duration shy 4 months. intensity depends on gradient fatality rate respect to infected and availability antibody testing, which yields welfare gain 2 GDP....