[1] Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analyzed to assess the dynamics and variability of the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC). Consistent with observations, the STCC is anchored by mode water to the north. For the present climate, the STCC tends to be stronger in models than in observations because of t...

Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represen...

[1] In this study, we evaluate the intensity of the CentralPacific (CP) and Eastern-Pacific (EP) types of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the pre-industrial, historical, and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the CMIP3 models, the pre-industrial simulations of the CMIP5 models ...

To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a wa...

This paper assesses the detectability of changes in global streamflow. First, a statistical detection method is applied to observed (no missing data which represent 42 % of global discharge) and reconstructed (gaps are filled in order to cover a larger area and about 60 % of global discharge) streamflow. Observations show no change over the 1958–1992 period. Further, an extension to 2004 over t...

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) are the two dominant lowfrequency modes in the North Pacific. This study focused on the simulation capability of the two leading lowfrequency modes in current-coupled models, based on 24 coupled model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results showed that most of these models cap...

Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water masses. Here, we employ a large-scale metric of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) to investigate ci...