Abstract Portfolio performance measures using holdings data are panel regressions. The returns of a fund’s stocks regressed on its lagged portfolio weights. Stock fixed effects isolate average from time-series predictive ability. Control variables condition for fund the characteristics held. long-term drives some classical measures, while ability others. A “buy-and-hold drift,” where weights in...

The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average overand underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984—2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by active funds outperform their underweighted counterparts by more than 7% per year, after adjustments for t...

We use mutual fund flows as a measure of individual investor sentiment for different stocks, and find that high sentiment predicts low future returns. Fund flows are dumb money–by reallocating across different mutual funds, retail investors reduce their wealth in the long run. This dumb money effect is related to the value effect: high sentiment stocks tend to be growth stocks. High sentiment a...

This questionnaire survey of fund managers in the United States, Germany and Switzerland documents a distinctly positive influence of bonus payments on investment behavior on both sides of the Atlantic. Higher bonus payments are significantly related to higher working effort but not to risk taking. They also seem to induce fund managers to rely more on fundamental information. Findings within r...

Genotype-environment interaction (GEI) is very important for breeders. It considered a complicated issue in breeding programs to obtain stable and high-yielding genotypes release new genotypes. This study was conducted achieve genotype that adaptive climatic conditions of potato-producing regions Iran. A total 20 potato lines along with five commercial varieties (Savalan, Agria, Caesar, Luta Sa...

We survey a theory of the economic underpinnings of the fat-tailed distributions of a number of financial variables, such as returns and trading volumes. Our theory posits that they have a common origin in the strategic trading behavior of very large financial institutions in a relatively illiquid market. We show how the fat-tailed distribution of fund sizes can indeed generate extreme returns ...

We show that new managers who take over mutual fund portfolios sell off inherited momentum losers at higher rates than stocks in any other momentum decile, even after adjusting for concurrent trades in these stocks by continuing fund managers. This behavior is observed regardless of fund characteristics and is stronger when new managers are external hires. The tendency of continuing fund manage...

In this paper, I build a model where financial intermediation slows the flow of capital. Investors optimally learn from intermediary performance to allocate capital toward profitable intermediaries. Intermediaries reach for yield, i.e invest in high tail risk assets, in an attempt to drive flows and reduce liquidation risk. Reaching for yield is stronger among intermediaries with weak opportuni...

Using a large and representative dataset of commodity trading advisors (CTAs), we provide compelling evidence that CTAs generate significant net excess returns of at least 4.1% annually; that approximately 64% of the funds have positively skewed returns; and that there is considerable heterogeneity among CTAs, with systematic trend followers doing significantly better than other subcategories. ...

Asset allocation is widely recognized as the most fundamental decision in the investment process. Surprisingly little work has been done on examining what drives the asset allocation recommendations of professional investment advisors. To address this issue, we propose a general framework to identify and estimate the parameters characterizing the preferences and beliefs of money managers. In a ...