We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

هدف: هدف از پژوهش حاضر مقایسۀ واکنش ­پذیری هیجانی و نظریه ذهن کودکان بر اساس سبک ­های ابرازگری مادرانشان بود. روش: روش توصیفی نوع علّی-مقایسه­ ای بود در دو گام به صورت آنلاین انجام رسید. ابتدا با استفاده نمونه ­گیری دسترس، تعداد 105 نفر مادرانی که نمرات آن­ها هر یک پرسشنامه کینگ امونز (1990)، دوسوگرایی (1990) کنترل راجر نشوور (1987) انحراف استاندارد بالاتر میانگین دست آمد (در گروه 35 نفر) دوم وا...

Throughout history, investors have attempted to determine the future states and prices of instruments that they consider to invest in. Thus, various econometric models have been developed in order to determine the variables influencing the prices of investment instruments, as well as the relationships between such variables. The main aim of the present study was to examine the variables that ma...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

of the Paper: Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data,...

This study examined the effect of demographic bonuses, unemployment, and inflation on economic growth in Jambi Province. used secondary data from Central Bureau Statistics Province during 2000-2021. The were analyzed using Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). All tests this Stationarity Test, Lag Length Criteria VAR Stability Cointegration Granger Causality VECM Estimation. results showed tha...

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on the dollar/yen exchange rate, using structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. We compare our estimates of the impulse responses with those based on levels Vector Autoregression. We also compare results from short run and long run restrictions imposed on the structural VECM. We find evidence of overshooting b...