Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a...

Incessant focal atrial tachycardia may be encountered in the pediatric age group although it is rarely seen. Ablation using radiofrequency or cryothermal energy is the preferred method for drug-resistant cases. Recently, 3D electroanatomic mapping systems have been increasingly used for mapping and ablation. In this report, we presented, for the first time, a pediatric case with incessant focal...

We examine the role of declining mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their dates of death. In an environment with high mortality, an individual who saves for retirement faces a high risk of dying before he can enjoy his planned le...

Focusing on tail effects — low probability but very adverse outcomes — I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w(τ ) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to τ . Using information on the distributions for ...

Global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty with learning. We provide stochastic dominance theorems that provide new insights into when abatement and investment into low carbon technology should increase in risk. We show that R&D into low-carbon technologies and near-term abatement are in some sense opposites in terms of risk. Abatement provides insuran...