Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a...

When testing hypotheses, rare or unexpected observations are normatively more informative than common observations, and recent studies have shown that participants’ behavior reflects this principle. Research has also shown that, when asked to test conditional hypotheses (“If X, then Y”) that are abstract or unfamiliar, participants overwhelmingly consider a supporting observation mentioned in t...

The collapse of the roof of the Baltimore & Ohio (B&O) Railroad Museum Roundhouse onto its collections during a snowstorm in 2003 provides a starting point for our exploration of the link between learning and rare events. The collapse occurred as the museum was preparing for another rare event: the Fair of the Iron Horse, an event planned to celebrate the 175th anniversary of American railroadi...

We used a nationally representative panel of Australian households to replicate a study by Yap et al. (2012) that evaluated how life satisfaction changed following major life events and the extent to which personality moderated those changes. We replicated the protective function of marriage but found that long-term declines that follow widowhood mostly reflect normative changes. In addition, w...

(b) In our original analysis of spontaneous fronts (section 2.2), we required that ∆(t) = O( ), and Taylor expanded with respect to ∆(t). The correct condition is d∆(t) = O( ). Since ∆(t) turns out to be a Wiener process, this means that d∆(t) is distributed according to a Gaussian and could take on arbitrarily large values. However, for weak noise the probability that this occurs is exponentia...

At very high energy the same universal relation between the multiparticle or the transverse energy distribution associated to a rare event C, P C and the corresponding minimum bias distribution P, P C (ν) ≡ ν/ < ν > P (ν), ν ≡ n or E T works for nucleus-nucleus collisions as well as for hadron-hadron collisions. This suggests that asymptotically, all hadronic processes are similar.