Macroeconomists constructing conditional forecasts often face a choice between taking stand on the details of fully-specified structural model or relying correlations from VARs and remaining silent about underlying causal mechanisms. This paper develops tools for economically meaningful scenarios with VARs, proposes metric to assess compare their plausibility. We provide unified treatment forec...

This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analysis. It looks at the original meaning of "scenario" and then discusses its appropriate usage in population projections with respect to several criteria, especially that of consistency of assumptions. Next, the paper describes the practical considerations and actual experiences in an IIASA effort to ...

Scenario-based User Needs Analysis or SUNA is a method for envisioning, clarifying and refining ideas for developing software products and services usually where there are two or more parties involved. Its strengths lie in the elicitation and analysis of user needs encapsulated in ‘day in the life of’ style scenarios, and the management of collaboration. The use of a workshop based process comb...

rapidly increasing urbanization in the world, especially in developing countries, let to increasing urban extents. rapid urban growth causes to appearance many problems such as wasting environmental resources, inability of providing necessary services for citizens and unplanned growth. urban mangers and planners need tools for understanding amount and size of future urban growths to prevent the...

Graphical representations of scenarios, such as UML Sequence Diagrams, serve as a well-accepted means for modeling the interactions among software systems and their environment through the exchange of messages. The Combined Fragments of UML Sequence Diagram permit various types of control flow among messages (e.g., interleaving and iteration) to express an aggregation of multiple scenarios enco...

Regional governance has improved efficiencies in various common goods such as transportation. Attempts to take advantage of such regional economies through regulation of land use run into the problems of existing local government controls and lack of existing alternative authority. One way to help promote regional solutions is to foster coordination among land use entities in local government. ...

SAS for Demand-Driven Planning and Optimization Listen to customers, focus on the market and respond to demand in near-real time • Quickly and easily visualize market signals and data to predict outcomes. Sense near-real-time market data to understand shifts in demand for your products. Simulate future demand by varying the values for price, sales promotions, marketing events and other related ...

In the context of current increasing variety, interconnectivity and alteration, many methods and tools for planning and decision-making such as time series analysis and trend extrapolation do not longer work out. Along the demands for good governance and open government, policy-makers need concise, reliable and up-to-date information to manage society's problems and affairs in an efficient and ...