The stability of the rational expectations equilibrium of a simple asset market model is studied in a situation where a group of traders learn about the relationship between the price and return on the asset using ordinary least squares estimation, and then use their estimates in predicting the return from the price. The model which they estimate is a well-specified model of the rational expect...

This paper is devoted to the question of whether traders can learn rational expectations from repeated observations of market data in a stationary environment with finitely many exogenous states of the world. The learning problem is placed in the context of an iterative adjustment process which achieves equilibrium if traders have rational expectations. The main result is that even if traders b...

in this paper we investigated effect of economic uncertainty on money demand function of iran during(1352-1386). at first by using a general equilibrium theory it is shown that in spite of the existence of economic uncertainties, most of agents who are risk-averse consider these uncertainties when constitute their port folio. they consider money demand is a function of income, interest rate and...

We study the rationality of learning and the biases in expectations in the Iowa Experimental Markets. Using novel tests developed in (Bossaerts, P., 1996. Martingale restrictions on equilibrium security prices under rational expectations and consistent beliefs. Caltech working paper; Bossaerts, P., 1997. The dynamics of equity prices in fallible markets. Caltech working paper), learning in the ...

We adopt mechanism design to study the long-run consequences of inflation on aggregate output, trade, and welfare. Our theory captures multiple channels for individuals to respond to the inflation tax: search intensity (the intensive margin), market participation (the extensive margin), and substitution between money and a higher return asset. To determine the terms of trade in pairwise meeting...

A simple model of activist macroeconomic policy derives a reaction function by assuming that rational governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by the Phillips curve. Although not formally modeled, governments apply a variety of instruments to influence inflation and output, in addition to monetary policy these including fiscal policy, bailouts and exchange rates. Our econome...

This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB in 1999 on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation, inflation expectations and forecast errors. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allow...

We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events underreact to new information. Existing models expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. develop a rational theory extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidenc...

this study is an attempt to develop a model of the simultaneous structure of the aggregate dynamic supply and demand to be used for estimation of parameters from data related to iran’s economy. the method for developing the model is an application of the dynamic and simultaneous process of aggregate supply and demand. obtained differential equations are used for solve the model. to estimate the...

housing market in iran got out of recession in year 1384 and turn into abnormal growth. but following the housing price growth, which continued until 1386, it deals with the slowdown of the housing market and stable prices in the spring of 1387. afterward, decreasing trend in housing prices continued in the summer, in spite of increase in global housing prices. in this paper, it is investigated...