This paper describes the key principles of why an assessment of uncertainty Abstract and its consequences are critical for the types of decisions that a body such as the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has to make. In doing so, it poses the question of whether formal methods may be useful to NICE and its advisory committees in making such assessments. Broadly, th...

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Background: Invasive fungal infections in neutropenic patients treated for

1 Health Technology Assessment Unit, Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 2 International Health Foundation, Utrecht, The Netherlands 3 Department of General Practice, Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 4 Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine, VU Univer...

To date, decision trees and Markov models have been the most common Abstract methods used in pharmacoeconomic evaluations. Both of these techniques lack the flexibility required to appropriately represent clinical reality. In this paper an alternative, more natural, way to model clinical reality – discrete event simulation – is presented and its application is illustrated with a real world exam...

1 Academic Unit of Health Economics and NICE Decision Support Unit, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK 2 Centre for Health Economics, Department of Economics and NICE Decision Support Unit, University of York, Heslington, York, UK 3 Centre for Health Economics, Department of Economics, University of York, Heslington, York, UK 4 Department of Health Policy Managem...

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