Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing a threat to forest ecosystems eliciting forest-pest outbreaks. In the southern Italian Alps, dramatic windthrow called Vaia occurred October 2018, shifting populations of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) from an endemic epidemic phase. Remote-sensing methods often employed detect areas affected by disturbances...

COVID-19 comes from a large family of viruses identified in 1965; to date, seven groups have been recorded which found affect humans. In the healthcare industry, there is much evidence that Al or machine learning algorithms can provide effective models solve problems order predict confirmed cases, recovered and deaths. Many researchers scientists field are also involved solving this dilemma, se...

Epidemics of influenza are major public health concerns. Since prediction always relies on the weekly clinical or laboratory surveillance data, typically Influenza-like illness (ILI) rate series, accurate multi-step-ahead predictions using ILI series is great importance, especially, to potential coming outbreaks. This study proposes Comprehensive Learning Particle Swarm Optimization based Machi...

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternati...

Conditions leading to convective outbreak in the Tropics are investigated by multivariate analysis of sounding and satellite data from the tropical western Pacific area. Circumstances which make the prediction problem difficult are discussed, and addressed by applying linear “error-in-variables” and nonlinear statistical simulation techniques to a large dataset. Lowto mid-tropospheric moisture ...

background : there are few published studies that use real data testing to examine the performance of outbreak detection methods. the aim of this study was to determine the performance of the exponentially weighted moving average (ewma) in real time detection of a local outbreak in mashhad city, eastern iran . methods : the ewma algorithms (both ewma 1 with λ=0.3 and ewma 2 with λ=0.6) were app...

background : few studies have focused on syndromic data to determine levels of alarm thresholds to detection of meningitis outbreaks. the purpose of this study was to determine threshold levels of meningitis outbreak in hamadan province, west of iran . methods : data on both confirmed and suspected cases of meningitis (fever and neurological symptom) form 21 march 2010 to 20 march 2012 were use...

food safety issues are not a new issue in science, but due to the dynamic changes in the modern world it is as equally important as decades ago. the aim of the study was to address the efforts in the development of a comprehensive food safety system in serbia, and make specific recommendations regarding the improvement of epidemiological investigation capacity as a useful tool which contributes...