Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block ...

This research examines whether precious metals futures serve as a price discovery vehicle for spot market movement. The spot price serves as a price discovery tool for silver. The co-integration test shows that silver, futures and spot prices are co-integrated and there exists one co-integration equation. The Granger causality test shows that there is no bi-causal relationship between futures a...

Energy carriers are one of the most important inputs in the agricultural sector. These inputs have been the foundation of the development and transition of the agricultural sector from the traditional stage to the industrial stage. The energy per capita marginal consumption in Iran’s agricultural sector is 3.2 times greater than its global average. Therefore, it is essential to save and optimal...

on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

there is no agreement among different economic schools about role of monetary policy in stabilization policy. new classic by means of rational expectations show that only unanticipated monetary policy influences upon real variables. how ever new keynsian by means of rational expectations shows that anticipated monetary policy influences real ariables too. the present article investigates above ...

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has upraised the crude oil price and its volatility, which leads to fluctuations in corresponding industries markets. Existing literatures have studied impact of shock many respects, precious metal market significant responses unusual events, same for conflict. This paper studies spot gold silver’s price, return, volatility with respect return WTI, during period Nove...

Oil price shocks are the major source of economic instability in oil exporting developing countries, including Iran. In this paper a Multi Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, with emphasis on optimization of oil sector as a producing sector is designed. Furthermore, an optimizing import sector is introduced into the model by considering the price rigidity in imported goods as a...

generally, high oil prices slow economic growth, cause inflationary pressures and creates global imbalances. in addition, oil price volatility increase uncertainty and restrain the much-needed investment in the capital market. thus, this paper applies the augmented dickey fuller and johansen co-integration tests in which the effect of oil price volatility, crude oil price and stock price is ana...

Testing cyclicality of fiscal policy is pertinent in any country to observe its type with the business cycle. In oil abundant economy, price and trade openness may also play a role determining cyclicality. This research probes economic growth, openness, on government consumption growth verify Saudi Arabia from 1971 2018. The cointegration test Pesaran (2001) utilized hypothesis augmented critic...

The present paper analyses the relations between food and oil prices for Malaysia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model. The bounds test of the NARDL specification suggests the presence of cointegration among the variables, which include the food price, oil price and real GDP. The estimated NARDL model affirms the presence of asymmetries in the food price behavior. Nam...