The theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM; G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, & H. Kleinbölting, 1991) has had a major influence on the field of judgment and decision making, with the most recent important modifications to PMM theory being the identification of several fast and frugal heuristics (G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996). These heuristics were purported to provide psychologically pl...

Our principal hypothesis is that reasoning and decision making are alike in that they both depend on the construction of mental models, and so they should both give rise to similar phenomena. In this paper, we consider one such phenomenon, which we refer to as "focussing": individuals are likely to restrict their thoughts to what is explicitly represented in their models. We show that focussing...

Anticipating a forthcoming sensory experience facilitates perception for expected stimuli but also hinders perception for less likely alternatives. Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that expectation biases arise from feature-level predictions that enhance early sensory representations and facilitate evidence accumulation for contextually probable stimuli while suppressing alternatives. Reason...

The Problem: Decision-making among members of a group entails aggregating the opinions of the constituents. If the opinions are unconstrained, then concensus typically fails when any vote is taken. In contrast, when opinions reflect a shared model of the domain, then concensus is likely, assuming members can communicate accurately the reasons for their individual choices. How, then, will concen...

This article presents a framework for the development of hypermedia systems, based on systematic modelling approaches. These introduce models at three abstraction levels (conceptual, navigation and presentation). An objectoriented approach, UWE, proposing UML extensions was adopted. The work described in this paper reports a solution for an integrated and consistent translation of those models ...

Deferred decision making (DDM) refers to when an individual collects evidence about two or more risky alternatives and decides when to stop and make a final choice. Real world examples include physicians running tests before diagnosing an illness, or commanders collecting intelligence before taking military action. We conducted a DDM study aimed at investigating how people know when to defer a ...