Wind farms provide electricity with no direct emissions. However, their output cannot be forecasted perfectly, even a short time ahead. Consequently, power systems with large amounts of wind power may need to keep extra fossil-fired generators turned on and ready to provide power if wind farm output drops unexpectedly. In this work, I introduce a new model for estimating the uncertainty in shor...

abstract the aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and price of sugar beet in iran. for this purpose, models applied to forecast are arima, single and double exponential smoothing, harmonic, artificial neural network and arch for period 1993-2008. results of durbin-watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochast...

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NO X), and carbon monoxide (CO) for ozone nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) model-ing regions. The report details t...

Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean...

Despite some recent conceptual studies and a modicum of empirical evidence, urban models do not currently take into account the energy efficiency of buildings. This paper presents a framework for incorporating energy efficiency and energy use of buildings into urban models based on microeconomic theory and pricing mechanisms in real estate markets. Using the example of the IRPUD urban land use,...

Deciding whether seasonality is of a stochastic nature, and thus slowly changing over time, or deterministic and thus repeating in the same way each season can have a substantial impact on forecast accuracy. Tests for stochastic seasonality, called seasonal unit root tests, have been developed for certain common seasonal periods, like 12 (monthly data) 4 and 2, but until now have not been avail...

Global climate change due to CO2 emissions is an issue of international concern that primarily attributed to fossil fuels. In this study, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used for analyzing world CO2 emission based on the global energy consumption. Linear and non-linear forms of equations were developed to forecast CO2 emission using Genetic Algorithm (GA) based on the global oil, natural gas, coal, a...