Regression-based tests of forecast probabilities of particular events of interest are constructed. The event forecast probabilities are derived from the SPF density forecasts of expected inflation and output growth. Tests of the event probabilities supplement statistically-based assessments of the forecast densities using the probability integral transform approach. The regression-based tests a...

The California generation fleet manages the existing variability and uncertainty in the demand for electric power (load). When wind power is added, the dispatchable generators manage the variability and uncertainty of the net load (load minus wind power). The variability and uncertainty of the load and the net load are compared when 8790MW of wind power are added to the California power system,...

The extended-range forecast skill of the ECMWF operational forecast model is evaluated during tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) events in the IndoWest Pacific warm pool. The experiment consists of ensemble extended serial forecasts including winter and summer ISO cases. The forecasts are compared with the ERA-40 analyses. The analysis focuses on understanding the origin of forecast error...

Forecasting of weather conditions such as solar irradiance and wind speed and direction is essential for efficient integration of solar and wind power into the energy portfolio. Several metrics can be used to evaluate forecast effectiveness: consistency, quality, and value [1]. Consistency refers to the correspondence between the forecast and the judgments made by forecasters to determine the f...

In this paper we test several forecast combination methods on industrial demand and forecast data from a semiconductor company. The tested combination methods include four popular methods existing in the literature, and new methods proposed in a companion paper. There are two forecasts to be combined: a time series forecast and a marketing forecast. According to the experiments, combining diffe...

Many studies have been done to prove that combining forecast methods gives a better predictive performance relative individual forecasts. This paper compared the single method and combined in predicting time series data. The study used annual oil revenue for period 1981–2019 from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which were divided into two sets: Training Set (TS) covered 1981–2010 Test (VS) 2011–...

We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation foreca...

Within-year patterns of analysts’ earnings forecasts have been attributed to analysts’ incentives to curry favor with managers by releasing optimistic forecasts at longer horizons, followed by a walkdown to levels at which actual earnings meet or beat the forecast at year end. We propose that forecasting difficulty interacts with such incentives and manifests in the observed walkdown. Although ...

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...