ABSTRACTDhanty Store is a family start-up located in East Jakarta. It was initiated 2018, engaged retail with the main product form of women's clothing and accessories. One important processes Dhanty operations procurement process. Currently, request products according to their wishes without looking at sales data. This causes stock not well controlled. When there lot demand, sometimes Shops ru...

The main goal of this paper is to study Statistical Process Control (SPC) with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart when observations are seriallycorrelated. The characteristic of control chart is Average Run Length (ARL) which is the average number of samples taken before an action signal is given. Ideally, an acceptable ARL of in-control process should be enough large, s...

Nonstationary ARIMA processes and nearly nonstationary ARMA processes, such as autoregressive processes having a root of the AR polynomial close to the unit circle, have sample autocovariance and spectral properties that are, in practice, almost indistinguishable from those of a stationary longmemory process, such as a Fractionally Integrated ARMA (ARFIMA) process. Because of this, model misspe...

This paper provides a Bayesian analysis of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models. We discuss in detail inference on impulse responses, and show how Bayesian methods can be used to (i) test ARFIMA models against ARIMA alternatives, and (ii) take model uncertainty into account when making inferences on quantities of interest. Our methods are then used to investigat...

A popular smoothing technique commonly used in time series analysis is double exponential smoothing. Basically, it’s an improvement of simple exponential smoothing which does the exponential filter process twice. Many researchers had developed the technique, hence Brown’s double exponential smoothing and Holt’s double exponential smoothing. Here, we introduce a new approach of double exponentia...