A large literature in exchange rate economics has investigated the forecasting performance of empirical exchange rate models using conventional point forecast accuracy criteria. However, in the context of managing exchange rate risk, interest centers on more than just point forecasts. This paper provides a formal evaluation of recent exchange rate models based on the term structure of forward e...

â â â  â â â â â  the main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two asian countries, iran and south korea. a monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. the data is collected from the central bank of each country and wdi. the calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are u...

we compare alternative monetary policies for iranian economy that this paper compares alternative monetary policy rules for iranian economy in faces to both internal and external shocks. for this purpose, we investigate the responses of macroeconomic variables respected to the money base and the terms of trade shocks, under three types of monetary rules including fixed exchange rate, inflation ...

national currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. these changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. long-run effects are recognized as the marshall-lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: j-curve an...

the emphasis of this paper is the role of volatility indices on improvement artificial neural networks (anns) forecasting models for the daily usd/eur and usd/gbp exchange rates two volatility indices are used. first; the realized volatility, which is based on intra-daily data, and second the garch volatility. they are applied into the model in two ways. firstly, the lagged volatility index is ...

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The r...

Article history: Received 15 May 2014 Received in revised form 14 January 2015 Accepted 14 January 2015 Available online 22 January 2015 This paper estimates the degree of persistence of 16 long-horizon real exchange rates relative to the US dollar. We use nonparametric operational algorithms by El-Gamal and Ryu (2006) for general nonlinear models based on two statistical notions: the short mem...

In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture the discreteness of price changes for financial transaction prices. Our model rests on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is part...

We consider the problem of estimating a measure of daily volatility from intermittent high-frequency data that are subject to market microstructure effects. We show that a simple Newey-West type modification of the realized variance (RV) yields an unbiased measure of volatility for the ‘open’ part of the day. The modified RV is unbiased even if 1-minute intra-day returns are used. Further, with...

We propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test for testing the null hypothesis of unit-root processes against the alternative that allows a proportion of units to be generated by globally stationary ESTAR processes and a remaining non-zero proportion to be generated by unit root processes. The proposed test is simple to apply and accommodates cross section dependence. Monte Carlo sim...