This paper makes a comparison of global, feedback and smoothed-piecewise neural prediction models for financial time series (FTS) prediction problem. Each model is implemented by various neural network (NN) architectures: global model by a multilayer perceptron (MLP), feedback model by a recurrent neural network (RNN) and smoothed-piecewise model by a mixture of experts (MoE) structure. The adv...

Financial time series forecast has been classified as standard problem in forecasting due to its high non-linearity and high volatility in data. Statistical methods such as GARCH, GJR, EGARCH and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) based on standard learning algorithms such as backpropagation have been widely used for forecasting time series volatility of various fields. In this paper, we propose...

In this paper we conduct a close examination of the relationship between return shocks and conditional volatility. We do so in a framework where the impact of return shocks on conditional volatility is specified as a general function and estimated nonparametrically using implied volatility data—the Market Volatility Index (VIX). This setup can provide a good description of the impact of return ...

Health volatility due to the Covid-19 pandemic presented a new-fangled trial banking industry with spillover effect of monetary policy volatility, which extremely affected performance in Nigeria. It has become matter concern assess and The paper used annual time series data that spanned period 2008 2020. employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Exponential Generalized Conditional Heterosk...

This research examines the correlations between return volatility of cryptocurrencies, global stock market indices, and spillover effects COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employed a two-stage multivariate exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model with an integrated dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) approach to measure impact on financial portfolio returns from 2019 2020. Moreover, used value-...

Government Sukuk (SBSN) has been launched since 2008, but it assumed illiquid. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance in 2020 regulates primary dealer for SBSN. At same time, restrictions on mobility due to Covid-19 Pandemic triggered negative sentiment. It increased volatility capital market. Asymmetric occurs when market crash. The purpose this study is identify characteristics government sukuk r...

This paper investigates the issue of co-movement and interaction among the monetary, foreign exchange and stock markets by employing the data from China’s financial markets. Based on the ICA-EGARCH-M model, we explore the volatility spillover effects so as to illustrate the overall co-movements across financial markets. Furthermore, in order to observe the multi-market dynamic relationship vari...

This paper focuses on the selection and comparison of alternative non-nested volatility models. We review the traditional in-sample methods commonly applied in the volatility framework, namely diagnostic checking procedures, information criteria, and conditions for the existence of moments and asymptotic theory, as well as the out-of-sample model selection approaches, such as mean squared error...

UNLABELLED The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to t...