Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows ...

abstract in the recent decades, the iranian economy has been highly depended on oil revenues. considering the fact that a great part of non-oil exports are agricultures product, studying factors influencing growth of agricultural sector plays an important role in the iran's economy. supply domestic shocks and domestic demand pressure along with deviation of exchange rates from its equilibrium, ...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: F1 F4 Q43 N75 Keywords: Oil price shock Trade balance VAR Granger non-causality test Gregory-Hansen cointegration test This study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non-oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations. The long-run causality running from oil price to overall, oil and non-o...

This paper presents an approach to dynamic factor modeling in which variations can be idiosyncratic, block-specific, or common across blocks and units. Existing two level factor models do not usually account for variations at the block level which implies that these can be confounded with genuine common co-movements in the data. Specifying the block structure also facilitates interpretation of ...

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative ...

Abstract This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases business cycle econometrically employ Bayesian VARs. We document that shock increases credit non-financial sector leads persistent decline economic act...